"phones, thanks to their centrality in people’s lives as well as the greater likelihood of harm, will always have a faster replacement cycle than PCs"
https://stratechery.com/2019/apples-errors/
(Sales and strategy analysis for Apple.)
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It's so hard to talk about probabilities. Casual conversation often conflates 'the likelihood of an event happening' with 'how strongly I believe in my assessment'.
For example, I'm very confident (say 90%) that the coin in my pocket is 50% likely to land on heads.
An interesting comment from the Coverity paper: randomisation is a very powerful technique for checkers that would require exponential work. Unfortunately it increases the likelihood of churn.
The likelihood of technology problem having a good FOSS solution seems to be roughly
how passionate people get about it x how fun it is to work on x friction when contributing