Some of our development techniques have research supporting their effectiveness, but others do not (despite advocates). Are they placebos?
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I'd heard the conventional wisdom that UX research states that mice are more efficient than keyboards, but turns out there's virtually no research on this!
https://danluu.com/keyboard-v-mouse/
Learning software development through playing and contributing to a MUD: https://tashian.com/articles/how-i-learned-to-program/
I find it really interesting how some areas of tech are widely expected to improve radically (e.g. LLMs and smart home tech), others gradually (CPU speed, battery capacity) and others very slowly (e.g. compiler optimisations).
Predicting the future is hard.